Does Safran Risk Give give the same results as Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis?

A client recently observed discrepancies between the results produced by Safran Risk and Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis (OPRA) when evaluating risk models. This prompted an investigation into the underlying causes of these differences.

Understanding the Differences

Both Safran Risk and OPRA utilise Monte Carlo simulations to assess project risks. However, variations in their methodologies can lead to differing outcomes.

1. Simulation Methodology

• OPRA: Employs a sampling method that may not fully capture the range of possible outcomes, potentially leading to less accurate risk assessments.

• Safran Risk: Utilizes an advanced sampling technique designed to provide a more comprehensive analysis of potential risks, resulting in more precise simulations.

  
  

2. Correlation Handling

• OPRA: Assigns correlations between activities, which can be cumbersome and may not accurately reflect the interdependencies of risks.

• Safran Risk: Correlates risks directly, allowing for a more intuitive and accurate representation of how risks interact within the project.

  
  

3. Integration of Cost and Schedule Risks

• OPRA: Primarily focuses on schedule risks, with limited integration of cost factors, potentially overlooking the interplay between cost and schedule uncertainties.

• Safran Risk: Offers robust integration of both cost and schedule risks, enabling a holistic analysis of project uncertainties and their combined impact.

  
  

4. Software Architecture

• OPRA: Built on older technology, which may limit its ability to handle large datasets and complex simulations efficiently.

• Safran Risk: Developed with modern architecture, providing enhanced performance, scalability, and user experience.

  
  
  
  

Conclusion

The differences in results between Safran Risk and OPRA stem from their distinct approaches to risk analysis. Safran Risk's advanced simulation techniques, direct risk correlation, comprehensive integration of cost and schedule risks, and modern software architecture contribute to its ability to deliver more accurate and insightful risk assessments compared to OPRA